|
Nominees and winners are determined by a two-stage ballot open to all registered members of the World Science Fiction Convention, an annual event held in a different city each year. The body of the trophy takes the shape of a rocket ship, and the shape of the base changes each year based on designs approved by a convention committee.
Hugos are awarded in numerous categories, including novel, novella, novelette, short story; related [nonfiction] book; dramatic presentation; professional editor and artist; semi-prozine; fanzine, fan writer, and fan artist.
Since Hugos are awarded on the basis of vote totals by fans registered to attend the World Science Fiction Convention, they are, in essence, the People's Choice awards of SF. Lists of Hugo nominees define a core reading list of genre SF for the past 50 years.
Many SF fans try to collect all of the Hugo winners for Best Novel, either in first edition (an extremely expensive proposition at this point, as we'll see below) or as inexpensive reprints. I know some first edition collectors who are working backward by decade through the Best Novel list.
A while back I got the idea of doing an analysis of the Hugo Best Novel list in terms of Return on Investment (ROI). In other words, if one had bought a copy of each year's winning novel at cover price, how would the current market value compare to the invested amount? Summarized below are fifteen selected items from five decades spanning the years from 1956 to 1995. The first price listed after the title is the original cover price (prices appearing in parentheses are estimates), the second its estimated current value.
14. The Big Time, Fritz Leiber (Boston: Gregg Press, 1976) {$20.00}/$500 (First published in Galaxy Magazine 1958; Ace Double PB 1961)
15. Double Star, Robert A. Heinlein (Garden City: Doubleday, 1956) {$5.00}/$4,500
Totals: $192.75/$16,150
Let me begin this discussion with the standard stock portfolio proviso that past performance is no guarantee of future earnings. It is difficult to make broad generalizations based on 51 data points spread over half a century of publishing history - actually, it's easy to make the generalizations; what's hard is making relevant ones.
It is immediately obvious that the older books on the list are worth more than the recent ones on the current book market, as we would expect. The older books were generally printed in smaller quantities. More went into the libraries or have otherwise been lost or destroyed over the years. And they represent some of the best work by some of the genre's legendary grand masters - authors with instant name-recognition even among non-SF collectors. In this group, we could definitely conclude that "Hugo" is a strong flashpoint.
The more recent books were generally printed in significantly larger initial print runs, more of which still survive in collectible condition. As a result, supply more nearly equals demand, and prices remain lower. Some higher-priced exceptions include Kim Stanley Robinsons' Mars books
and William Gibson's Neuromancer.
The hardback first editions of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy
(Red Mars, Green Mars, and Blue Mars) and of William Gibson's
Neuromancer were first published in the UK by, respectively, Harper Collins and
Gollancz. UK publishers tend towards small hardback print runs and will often release a
hardback and paperback edition simultaneously. This pattern holds true for any number of
high points in SF publishing: where the UK edition precedes the US, the UK print run is
generally much smaller and the collector market price is much higher. In addition to
Robinson's and Gibson's books, other examples include China Mieville's
Perdido Street Station, Jasper Fforde's The Eyre Affair, Eoin Colfer's
Artemis Fowl, J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter books, and Zenna Henderson's
The People: No Different Flesh. Of course, it doesn't hurt value to almost single-handedly
define a brand new sub-genre of SF, as Neuromancer did with cyberpunk.
A relatively recent change in SF publishing and marketing is the increased importance of series books. While there are obvious examples in early SF and fantasy (think Foundation and The Lord of the Rings), it is really within the last 30 years that series have proliferated. Heinlein crystallized the concept when he assembled his many inter-related stories and novels into a
"future history."
Asimov spent the latter part of his career attempting to link all of his different works into a common universe. Marion Zimmer Bradley - Darkover; Anne McCaffery - Pern; Terry Pratchett - Discworld; CJ Cherryh - Union/Alliance and Foreigner series (which might still turn out to be in the same universe); Katherine Kurtz - Deryni; and the list goes on. A series gives an author room to grow, to explore (or rehash) a multitude of story lines against an increasingly well-defined (or done-to-death) background, usually with a cast of familiar or stereotyped characters. Publishers find it easier to sell the next installment in a known and popular series, rather than risk backing something new that might fall flat. In terms the publishers can relate to, Terry Pratchett could slap
"Discworld Directory" on a telephone book and move units.
Among the books on the Best Novel list, the first "series" books are Frank Herbert's Dune
(Hugo 1966) and Larry Niven's Ringworld (Hugo 1971, part of the Known Space series). Neither author received any subsequent Best Novel Hugos. Compare this to Lois McMaster Bujold's three wins (1991, 1992, 1995) for entries in her Miles Vorkosigan series. Because the Hugo is decided by vote of readers, an established series with lots of interested followers might well hold an advantage. But because later volumes in popular series are typically printed in much larger numbers, the long-term market value of these books stays fairly low. The first edition of JK Rowling's Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Hugo winner, Best Novel, 2001) is never going to amount to much in market value because so many copies were released in the first printing.
SF collectors have of course watched the increase in value of the Hugo winners over the years, some in glee as the net value of their collection grows, others in frustration as the purchase price of some key titles soar out of reach.
Having seen the hefty return on investment that could have been realized from buying all the Hugo Best Novel winners at list price over the years, a question naturally arises: Is it too late to start? Could a similar increase in value be expected by the year 2053, if we were to take the
"wine cellar" approach and start stockpiling all the Hugo winners beginning retroactively in 2002?
My current thinking leads me to say no. To begin with, I think that SF hardback firsts from the 1950's started off scarcer than most SF books published today. In addition, the idea of collecting science fiction first editions didn't exist in the 1950's in the way that it does now. As a result, modern SF firsts are being bought up in collector grade condition by a growing number of fan collectors (thanks in large part to the internet), so many more copies will survive their trip to the year 2053. I think that overall the value of Hugo winners will go up but not to the degree
we've seen in the past 50 years.
As with any general pronouncement, there will be notable exceptions. For example,
Gibson's Neuromancer in the Gollancz edition will continue to be an important book in the history and development of the genre. As with real estate, they
"ain't making any more." Unlike non-fiction, reprinting collectible SF doesn't diminish the value of the first editions. If anything, it can sometimes cause a renewed interest in an author and an upswing in the price of his first editions.
As a final note, I recommend that you not limit yourself to looking at just the winners of the Hugos for Best Novel. Each year up to five nominees are selected. As of 2004, there are 236 Best Novel nominees listed since the inception of the Hugos. Additional study of this list could be very rewarding.
Complete list of Novels Nominated for Hugo Best Novel (winner is listed first)
2004: Paladin of Souls by Lois McMaster Bujold
2003: Hominids by Robert J. Sawyer
2002: American Gods by Neil Gaiman
2001: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire by J. K. Rowling
2000: A Deepness in the Sky by Vernor Vinge
1999: To Say Nothing of the Dog by Connie Willis
1998: Forever Peace by Joe Haldeman
1997: Blue Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson
1996: The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson
1995: Mirror Dance by Lois McMaster Bujold
1994: Green Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson
1993: A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge (tie)
1992: Barrayar by Lois McMaster Bujold
1991: The Vor Game by Lois McMaster Bujold
1990: Hyperion by Dan Simmons
1989: Cyteen by C. J. Cherryh
1988: The Uplift War by David Brin
1987: Speaker for the Dead by Orson Scott Card
1986: Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
1985: Neuromancer by William Gibson
1984: Startide Rising by David Brin
1983: Foundation's Edge by Isaac Asimov
1982: Downbelow Station by C. J. Cherryh
1981: The Snow Queen by Joan D. Vinge
1980: The Fountains of Paradise by Arthur C. Clarke
1979: Dreamsnake by Vonda McIntyre
1978: Gateway by Frederik Pohl
1977: Where Late the Sweet Birds Sang by Kate Wilhelm
1976: The Forever War by Joe Haldeman
1975: The Dispossessed by Ursula K. Le Guin
1974: Rendezvous with Rama by Arthur C. Clarke
1973: The Gods Themselves by Isaac Asimov
1972: To Your Scattered Bodies Go by Philip José Farmer
1971: Ringworld by Larry Niven
1970: The Left Hand of Darkness by Ursula K. Le Guin
1969: Stand on Zanzibar by John Brunner
1968: Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny
1967: The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress by Robert A. Heinlein
1966: Dune by Frank Herbert (tie)
1965: The Wanderer by Fritz Leiber
1964: Here Gather the Stars (book title: Way Station) by Clifford D. Simak
1963: The Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick
1962: Stranger in a Strange Land by Robert A. Heinlein
1961: A Canticle for Leibowitz by Walter M. Miller
1960: Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein
1959: A Case of Conscience by James Blish
1956: Double Star by Robert A. Heinlein
1955: They'd Rather Be Right by Mark Clifton and Frank Riley
1953: The Demolished Man by Alfred Bester
Questions or comments?
| Forum
| Store
| Publications
| BookLinks
| BookSearch
| BookTopics
| Archives
| Advertise
| AboutUs
| ContactUs
| Search Site
| Site Map
| Google Site Map
Store - Specials
| BookHunt
| BookShelf
| Gold Edition & BookThink's Quarterly Market Report
| DomainsForSale
| BookThinker newsletter - free
Copyright 2003-2011 by BookThink LLC
|
|
